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金沙国际娱乐平台:Fading Style Select Faucet

时间:2018/4/15 2:25:46  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: At the beginning of April, theinterest ratebackbone continued its downward trend in March, but the sentiment of A-share investors remained ...

At the beginning of April, the interest rate backbone continued its downward trend in March, but the sentiment of A-share investors remained weak. The downward trend of and did not push up the valuation center. Before the new favorable signals of profit or liquidity emerge, the A-shares have a large probability to maintain a fluctuating inventory game state. From the perspective of Meso, China's economy has entered a new era of great changes, and the increase in industry concentration is an inevitable path to achieve this process. Leading is an inevitable trend. The second quarter results are still the most central variable, and they are optimistic about the related growth leaders and value leaders.

Lack of upward momentum

China Securities Journal: In the context of continuous declining interest rates, the recent two cities have contracted sales, and the style switching between blue chip and small and medium-sized companies has been frequent, and hot-spot rotation has accelerated. What are the factors that suppress risk appetite?

Zhou Xu: Overall, the current market risk appetite is still cautious. The negative impact of Sino-US trade friction on the formation of A-shares has not been fully digested.

At the regulatory level, this year's macro tone is still deleveraging. It is expected that the second quarter financial supervision policy will continue to land, and that financial delisting will be used to leverage SOEs. Whether it is the first meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Commission or the increase in the 5MO OMO interest rate, It implies that the core contradiction with deleveraging has shifted from the financial sector to the corporate sector.

At the economic level, although the economic data for the January-February period exceeded expectations, due to the internal structural contradictions and seasonal factors, the market's doubts about whether economic growth can be accelerated will still need to be verified by the second quarter spring start-up data to verify domestic economic resilience.

Gu Yongtao: The overall market has recently experienced a volatile pattern and the market style has changed. Contrast between the small and medium-sized companies, the gradual improvement from a dominant growth stock in March to a blue-chip stock is relatively good, but the overall upward momentum of the market is still lacking.

From the perspective of 10-year Treasury yields, the interest rate center continued its downward trend in March, but A-share investor sentiment remained sluggish, and the decline in interest rates did not push up the valuation center.

From a market perspective, concerns about economic and trade frictions have affected investor sentiment. The macroeconomic data released in the first quarter was generally weak, and the industry-informed data showed that the start-up situation was not good. The accumulation of upstream cyclical inventory caused investors' concerns about the economy and the international data was also lower than the previous forecast. The downside of the interest rate center partially reflects the market's judgment on the economy, which also leads to investors in the equity market worrying about fundamental restoration. The second quarter macro data is expected to show signs of recovery, but the overall situation is still relatively weak, and the recovery of economic momentum still needs further verification, which has suppressed the increase in risk appetite.

The attention of investors to trade frictions has been rising recently, and short-term trading sentiment has been greatly affected by this. Import and export In China’s economic recovery in 2017, the market is concerned that the increase in trade frictions will affect the import and export, which will affect the market’s economic expectations.

Wei Yingjie: After the Spring Festival, the trend of small and medium-sized enterprises continued to outperform the blue-chip stocks. The main reason is that the market logic has shifted from a traditional industry profit-recovery under capacity removal to a small-period drop. With the over-expected surplus of liquidity in the first quarter of the bank , Europe and the United States economy has loosened the logic of global recovery in successive January-March period, and the small and medium-sized banks have a good game value after a deep fall. At present, the overall trading volume of A-shares has not been enlarged, indicating that the market is still in the inventory game state since last year.

On the one hand, Europe and the United States economy was lower than expected in the first quarter, and the 10-year Treasury interest rate center rose by about 50 bps from the end of last year (the continued tightening of offshore US dollar liquidity) plus geopolitical and trade frictions and other "gray swan" emerged. Global risk appetite is in a clear downward trend. Under the background of the opening of the capital market, it is difficult for A-shares to stand alone. On the other hand, the domestic financial de-leverage, capital management, new government to be settled (the capital market-related leverage will be further regulated), and the decline of peaks in the traditional industry's profitability expectation will suppress the market's risk appetite. Until the new favorable signals of profit or liquidity emerge, A-shares will still maintain a fluctuating stock-game status.

Equilibrium of market structure

China Securities Journal: Will the market focus in the second quarter be transferred to the second-tier Baima? Or is the size of the ticket further balanced?

Zhou Xu: In the short term, although Baima Bluechip has fundamental support, it is not easy for the market to regain confidence after the “Bao Tu” collapse. The GEM valuation premium rate has fallen to a historically low level. Policy warming has boosted market risk appetite, and the relatively less resistance of the GEM has ushered in an irritating rebound. However, the lack of endogenous growth capacity remains its worry. After the market experienced extreme blue-chip market and small-cap stocks incitement, it is expected that the style in the second quarter will gradually move towards equilibrium.

Large-scale consumer, financial, real estate and other blue-chips Stock base The overall pattern of goodness has not changed, and its performance has always been a solid support for its share price. At present, the valuation of financial and real estate sectors still has advantages. After gradually absorbing the early negatives in the future, large-cap blue-chip stocks are expected to stabilize and brewing after a rebound, but the expected rate of return may need to be reduced. For growth stocks, the increase in short-term risk appetite has eroded the concerns of its lack of endogenous growth capacity. Individual stocks that have continued declining performance are still facing greater pressure to return to valuations. 7 Yong Yongtao: From the perspective of market structure, the most obvious change in the A-share market in the first quarter of 2018 was a style change. Although January 2018 continued the 2017 blue-chip style, the growth stocks dominated by the GEM in February and March Strong performance. With the recent deduction of market structure, investors have begun to disagree on the judgment of the future style.

Looking back at the changes in the size of the A-share market since 2005, under the pattern of the shock market, the style continued for a longer period of time, and the factors that contributed to the style conversion mainly came from the change in the performance growth rate. At present, the overall A-share market is in an oscillating pattern, and from the macroeconomic environment and micro-enterprise conditions, especially goodwill, the timing for the continued recovery of small-cap stocks has not yet arrived, so the probability of a strong growth stock style is not high.

From a valuation point of view, after more than two years of adjustment, the valuation center of the blue chip stocks gradually moved upwards, and the valuation risk of the growth stocks was partially released. From the comparison of historical data, the safety margins and risks brought about by the valuation are all weakened. Although there is still a large difference between the absolute valuations of the small and the large plates, under the “valuation anchor” mentality, there is a higher probability that the plate will move towards equilibrium.

Wei Yingjie: From the data of social financing, import and export in March, combined with the trend of global economic slowdown, A shares lack overall opportunities. The theme of the inventory game will gradually return to growth logic from the performance driven by economic recovery. With relatively loose liquidity and a gradual falsification of the logic of global recovery, under the general trend of structural reforms, the restructuring of the stock economic structure will gradually map to the capital market. Coupled with the policy orientation of IPO resources to “unicorns” and tilting of emerging industries, the market will show a rise in local risk appetite for industries that are in line with industrial policies and planning for 2025. Leading companies that correspond to related industries or companies with certain technical barriers will be configured. The center of gravity of the market is shifting to "real growth" rather than the dimension of the circulation plate. A similar "cute 50" breed of slow cattle will also appear in small and medium-sized schools. The correlation between the performance of individual stocks and the traditional attributes of stock indexes, market capitalization, and their respective sectors decreased.

Concern into Longhe Value leader

China Securities Journal: Under the pattern of bond market opportunities, what is the attractiveness of investing in the stock market next? Which fields and sectors are worth adding?

Zhou Xu: The Chinese economy has entered a new era of great changes. The increase in industry concentration is an inevitable path to achieve this process, leading to inevitable trends. In the second quarter, the market was far from the stage where liquidity was rampant and risk appetite was greatly increased. Performance was still the most important variable. In the second quarter, it was optimistic about related growth leaders and value leaders.

On the one hand, the value stocks that have retreated since February have relatively better valuation and profitability. On the other hand, the new economy will continue to be the mainstay of medium-term investment. The switch between the old and new kinetic energy will be dictated. The signal for policy support to increase support for new technologies, new industries, new business models and new models will be clear. High-quality new economic companies will be even more vulnerable to the A-share market. Inclusiveness, the improvement of future earnings expectations will also further promote the growth stock market.

In the second quarter, we are optimistic about the leading players in the related growth sector, such as semiconductors, 5G, pharmaceuticals and services, and new energy vehicles. Leading value leaders such as finance, home appliances, brand consumption, etc. can still be deployed as bottom positions.

Gu Yongtao: Although the recent market style began to drift, gradually changing from the growth stock style in February and March to the blue chip style in early April, but from the historical valuation comparison point of view, the valuation risk of growth stocks has been substantially released, the valuation of blue chip stocks The value advantage is also weakened with the rise, and the market has a higher probability of moving to equilibrium. Therefore, it is recommended to weaken the game of style and focus on performance support. At the same time, attention should also be paid to the matching degree between performance and valuation.

From the perspective of the sector, the large consumer sectors with performance support and the growth stocks that have outperformed the market have investment value. However, it is worth noting that the current market sentiment is still weak, macroeconomic data, regulatory measures and international factors have a greater impact on risk appetite, and the pressure of short-term correction still exists. At this time, more attention is paid to certainty. Therefore, the configuration should be weakened style, focus on performance, dilute the plate, select stocks.

Wei Yingjie: The bond market, especially interest rate bond yield, is regarded as a risk-free interest rate. In March, the bond calf market made the 10-year Treasury bond and national bond yield drop 40-50bps, which is mapped to the overall valuation center of A shares. Has risen. However, for the blue chips held by the institutions last year, it is possible that the lower-than-expected earnings growth will offset the rise of the valuation center. However, for varieties whose growth is in line with expectations or can exceed expectations, the downward trend in bond yields will have a certain positive effect. In terms of specific sectors, the United States is most afraid of the industries that come from behind it. It is precisely industries with high added value, industry growth space, and strategic value. These fields have a technological advantage, R \u0026 D strengths of the company is likely to be similar to Han's Laser 2003, 2004 , Qingdao Haier, Gree , etc. Manniu varieties.


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